A blog on Chinese economy & society

China to see more trade deficit in April

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China’s March trade deficit was written off as an one-off fluke by many commentators. However, it seems that the trend many economists have expected it to continue, at least into April, with a consensus forecast of USD1.2bn in trade deficit.

Granted, this is already down substantially from March’s USD8bn, but it will serve to deflect criticism of China’s currency peg ahead of the Sino-US Strategic Forum in May. As such, those betting on RMB appreciation will likely to be seriously disappointed.

Going forward, it’s entirely possible that things will return to the unsustainable “normal” by May. The main driver of this outlook being a slowdown in imports, which in turn is simply a result of the government’s tightening efforts.


Written by Cindy Luk

May 7, 2010 at 9:46 pm

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